Q2 2026: Evidence, Enforcement and the Digital Shift

If Q1 2026 was defined by reform gathering pace, Q2 has been defined by that reform biting down. Across eight jurisdictions, the quarter produced a consistent set of signals: documentation is no longer defensive, digital systems are being weaponised by revenue authorities, and the gap between what a tax policy says and what it can actually enforce is narrowing fast.

The changes span West Africa, East Africa, Southern Africa and the Indian Ocean. Together, they confirm a direction of travel that businesses cannot afford to treat as background noise.

Below are the developments that shaped the quarter.

Liberia: A Quiet Law With a Long Reach

Liberia’s Tax Amendment Act 2025 came into effect on 1 April 2026, and while no single provision grabbed headlines, the cumulative effect is significant.

The most consequential change for cross-border operators is the reduction of the permanent establishment threshold from 90 days to 30 days, assessed on an aggregate basis within a 12-month period. Consulting firms, technical service providers, and project-based businesses that have historically operated below the old threshold may now find themselves within the Liberian tax net without any change to their activities.

Alongside this, the Act broadens source rules to capture income from intellectual property and software used in Liberia, introduces a 15% withholding tax on a wider range of payments to non-residents, and strengthens the penalty regime to include facilitators of tax evasion. Advisers and accountants now face potential penalties of up to 10% of understated tax.

The message is clear: Liberia is not making incremental adjustments. It is repositioning itself as a jurisdiction that actively protects its tax base.

Tanzania: When a Small Adjustment Cascades

The Court of Appeal of Tanzania delivered its decision in Amadeus Global Travel Distribution Limited v Commissioner General, TRA on 24 March 2026, and the numbers tell the story.

A transfer pricing adjustment of TZS 54 million (approximately USD 20,600) triggered total exposure of TZS 494.8 million (approximately USD 190,000) once corporate income tax, VAT, repatriated income tax, interest and penalties were applied. What began as a technical disagreement about whether finance costs could be excluded from a TNMM calculation became a lesson in the multiplier effect of TP disputes.

The court made two things plain. First, OECD guidelines are persuasive in Tanzania, not binding. Second, the burden of proof rests entirely with the taxpayer, and a TP policy alone is not evidence. Without robust functional analysis and documentation that specifically addresses the treatment in dispute, positions that are technically acceptable can quickly become technically indefensible.

For any business with intra-group arrangements in East Africa, this case is essential reading.

Rwanda: From File When Asked to File with Your Return

Rwanda Revenue Authority’s April 2026 upgrade to its e-Tax platform crossed a line that many jurisdictions are approaching but few have crossed: transfer pricing documentation must now be submitted alongside the annual corporate income tax return, not simply retained and produced on request.

The legal authority was already there. Articles in the Income Tax Law and the Tax Procedures Law already required filing where thresholds were met. What changed is that the system can now enforce it.

The affected population is broader than it might appear. The thresholds, annual turnover exceeding FRW 600 million (approximately USD 410,000) and individual controlled transactions exceeding FRW 10 million (approximately USD 6,000), will capture many mid-sized businesses operating in Rwanda.

What must be filed is substantive: organisational structure, financial statements, functional analysis, benchmarking studies and intercompany agreements. This is not a formality; it is a full technical submission.

Rwanda has effectively shifted the entire posture of TP compliance from reactive to proactive. Other jurisdictions are watching.

Mauritius: More Time, Same Obligation

Mauritius extended the filing and payment deadline for Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax obligations to 30 June 2026 for affected taxpayers, a practical concession to the genuine operational complexity of Pillar Two compliance.

But the extension should not be read as hesitation. Mauritius formally introduced a Qualified Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax as part of its Pillar Two implementation, designed to ensure large multinationals pay an effective minimum rate of 15% on Mauritian profits before any other jurisdiction can impose a top-up charge. The legislative intent is clear; what the extension reflects is the data-intensive reality of actually calculating and filing under the new rules.

For MNE groups with Mauritius operations, the practical challenge is not just technical calculation. It is governance: identifying in-scope entities, aligning accounting standards across jurisdictions, building data pipelines capable of producing GloBE-compliant information returns, and ensuring consistency across CbCR and TP documentation. The extension gives more time to do this properly. It does not change the expectation.

Kenya: Two Sides of the Same Finance Bill

Kenya’s Finance Bill 2026 covers a lot of ground, but two proposals stand out for opposite reasons.

On the enforcement side, the Bill proposes to expand withholding tax to cover interchange fees, merchant service charges and certain payment processing fees by reclassifying them as management or professional services. A related VAT amendment would remove exemptions previously available to some payment processing services. Together, these proposals increase the effective tax burden on digital payment infrastructure and may favour traditional banking channels over fintech providers.

The Bill also proposes a significant expansion of Kenya’s indirect transfer rules, broadening the circumstances in which offshore share disposals involving Kenyan assets can attract Kenyan tax. The absence of clear valuation thresholds creates uncertainty for foreign investors holding Kenyan assets through offshore structures.

On the other side, the Bill proposes to exempt qualifying property transfers between companies and their shareholders from capital gains tax where those transfers form part of a genuine internal reorganisation. Qualifying transfers would also not constitute deemed dividend distributions, removing a second layer of exposure that has historically complicated restructurings. This is a welcome development for corporate groups with Kenyan subsidiaries who need to simplify structures, separate business divisions or prepare for investment rounds without triggering unnecessary tax costs.

The Bill is still progressing through Parliament and may yet be amended, but both sets of proposals warrant close monitoring.

São Tomé and Príncipe: Small Economy, Familiar Direction

São Tomé and Príncipe’s 2026 Budget, effective from 1 January 2026, introduced a set of changes that would not look out of place in any of the larger economies on this list.

Mandatory certified invoicing software is being introduced for specified taxpayers, enabling real-time transaction monitoring and improving VAT enforcement capability. The minimum corporate income tax is being revised to strengthen revenue certainty. A list of VAT exemptions has been expanded, though this creates its own complexity around input VAT recovery and apportionment.

The direction is the same one visible across the continent: digital visibility over taxpayer activity, tighter compliance controls, and less tolerance for gaps between what is declared and what is transacted.

Malawi: Steady Broadening of the Base

Malawi’s 2026/2027 budget and revenue reform programme produced several changes that, taken together, represent a consistent broadening of the tax base rather than any single dramatic reform.

VAT on digital services supplied by non-resident providers is now in force, capturing streaming, cloud platforms, software subscriptions and online advertising. The standard VAT rate has increased from 16.5% to 17.5%. The threshold for the additional 10% corporate income tax has been reduced from MWK 10 billion to MWK 5 billion in annual taxable income, the equivalent of approximately USD 2.9 million at current rates, meaning a significantly wider group of medium-to-large businesses now faces the higher rate.

Capital gains tax on listed shares has been abolished and replaced with a 2% final withholding tax on gross disposal proceeds. This creates a potential anomaly: a taxpayer selling at a loss can still face tax. An exemption is available where proceeds are immediately reinvested into other Malawian listed shares, though the practical question of how withholding agents verify this in real time remains open.

The Bigger Picture: Q2’s Defining Themes

Looking across these eight developments, four themes stand out.

Documentation is your first line of defence, not your last. The Tanzania case makes this concrete. A technically acceptable position without supporting evidence is not a position at all. Rwanda’s mandatory filing requirement moves documentation from a backstop into a formal submission. Whatever jurisdiction you operate in, the standard of supporting evidence required to defend a position is rising.

Digital enforcement is closing the gap between law and practice. Rwanda’s e-Tax upgrade, Malawi’s digital administration rollout, São Tomé and Príncipe’s certified invoicing requirement and Mauritius’ DMTT filing infrastructure all reflect the same shift: revenue authorities are building systems that make it harder to rely on the distance between what the law says and what they can actually see.

Thresholds are falling, and exposure is multiplying. Liberia’s PE threshold is now 30 days. Rwanda’s TP filing thresholds are not high. Malawi’s additional corporate tax threshold has been halved. Businesses that assessed their exposure under old rules may need to reassess it.

Some jurisdictions are also creating space for legitimate restructuring. Kenya’s proposed CGT exemption for internal reorganisations is a reminder that tax reform is not only about tightening. Jurisdictions that want to attract investment are also designing rules that allow businesses to organise themselves efficiently. The challenge is navigating the enforcement and the relief at the same time.

What This Means for Businesses

Q2 2026 reinforces what Q1 signalled: the African tax landscape is not changing through a single seismic event. It is changing through accumulated, coordinated shifts, many of them procedural and administrative, that together alter the risk profile materially.

For businesses operating across multiple African jurisdictions, the practical priorities are:

  • Review TP positions against local law, not just OECD guidelines
  • Ensure documentation is substantive and evidence-based, not just policy-level
  • Map digital service and payment flows against updated withholding and VAT rules
  • Assess PE exposure under revised thresholds in jurisdictions like Liberia
  • Monitor Pillar Two readiness if operating in or through Mauritius
  • Track the Kenya Finance Bill through to enactment before making restructuring decisions

If you would like to discuss your African tax exposure in more detail, our team would be pleased to speak with you. Get in touch.

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